The global printing market is growing by only 2.2% per year, Russian print advertising is falling by 12-24%, but packaging and labels are keeping the industry afloat. We break down the real numbers and trends of 2025 without embellishment.
The global commercial printing market: not a recovery, but slow growth
Industry news often features the thesis of the commercial printing market's "recovery" after the pandemic. The reality looks different. According to the Smithers analytical report "The Future of Global Printing to 2030," the global printing market will grow from $868 billion in 2020 to $969.7 billion by 2030 — that's an annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.2%. For comparison: digital advertising grows by 10-15% annually, and the packaging industry by 4-5%.
What does this mean in practice? Commercial printing is not experiencing a boom. The publishing segment — books, magazines, newspapers — continues to shrink. The main growth drivers are concentrated in three niches: packaging (flexible and cardboard), labels (especially self-adhesive), and inkjet digital printing for personalized products and small runs. Offset printing, which has been the backbone of the industry for decades, is stagnating or slowly losing ground to digital technologies.
For printing houses, this means the need to restructure the business model: from universal services to specialization in growing segments or investments in digital equipment with a short production cycle.
Russian market: print advertising is falling, packaging supports the industry
Advertising budgets are leaving print
According to the Association of Communication Agencies of Russia (AKAR) for 2025, the print media segment in advertising decreased by 12% — to 4.1 billion rubles. Classic printed outdoor advertising (billboards, citylights on paper media) fell even more — minus 24%, to 20.6 billion rubles. This is a continuation of a long-term trend: advertisers are redistributing budgets to digital channels, social networks, and digital outdoor advertising (DOOH), which grew by 28%.
The only bright segment in print advertising is the top 30 largest advertisers, who increased investments in premium press by 47%. These are glossy magazines, business publications, corporate catalogs — products with high cost and a narrow audience. For most commercial printing houses working for the mass market, this segment is inaccessible.
Conclusion: the claim that «advertising budgets for printing are growing» does not correspond to reality. The total volume of print advertising is decreasing by double-digit percentages annually. Printing houses that built their business on flyers, booklets and advertising brochures are forced to seek new niches or reduce capacity.
Packaging and label — a stable segment
Counterbalance to the decline of advertising printing — the packaging market. According to estimates from the RosUpack exhibition and industry analysts, the Russian packaging market in 2025 amounts to 1.3–1.7 trillion rubles, with growth of about 7% per year. Growth drivers:
- Corrugated packaging: growth of 5-8% annually, associated with the development of e-commerce and logistics. Wildberries, Ozon, Yandex.Market — the largest consumers of transport packaging.
- Packaging for marketplaces: According to forecasts, the segment will grow by 30% by 2028. This includes not only corrugated boxes but also labels, inserts, and branded packaging for sellers.
- Food packaging: stable demand for cardboard boxes, flexible packaging (flow-pack, sachet), labels for food products.
For printing houses with offset or flexographic machines, transitioning to packaging and labels is a logical strategy. However, the entry threshold is high: certification is required (for food packaging — compliance with TR CU), investments in specialized equipment (flexo, lamination, die-cutting), and working with large clients on long-term contracts.
Digital printing vs offset: where the boundary lies in 2025
One of the key questions for commercial printing houses is when digital printing is more profitable than offset. In 2025, the economic profitability threshold has shifted:
- Business cards, leaflets, flyers: digital printing is more cost-effective up to 250-300 copies. Offset is justified from 500 copies and above.
- Brochures, booklets, catalogs: threshold of 500-1000 copies. Below this volume, digital printing offers advantages in speed and no setup time; above this, offset printing is cheaper per unit.
- Packaging and label: digital printing (toner or inkjet) is used for small and medium runs with personalization (e.g., limited series, regional design variants). Mass runs — flexography and offset.
An important nuance: digital printing does not replace offset, but complements it. Printing houses that have invested in both directions gain a competitive advantage — they can take orders of any volume and complexity, from 10 to 100,000 copies.
Staffing crisis: printing houses cannot find workers
Where the printers and bookbinders went
One of the most acute problems of the Russian printing industry in 2025 is the shortage of qualified personnel. According to hh.ru, the average salary of a printer in Yekaterinburg is 45-60 thousand rubles, a bookbinder — 40-50 thousand. At the same time, at Wildberries and Ozon warehouses, order pickers receive 50-70 thousand rubles with simpler working conditions and flexible schedules. The result is predictable: bookbinders and post-press workers are massively leaving for marketplaces.
The second wave of personnel outflow is to the defense industry complex. Machine operators, setup technicians, and printing press operators are in demand at defense industry enterprises, where salaries are 20-30% higher, and the social package is broader.
Attempted solutions: combining professions
In 2024, the Ministry of Labor combined three working professions in the printing industry into one — "Master of Printing." The idea was that a single specialist could perform the functions of a printer, binder, and post-press operator, which would reduce the demand for personnel. In practice, the reform did not work: employers are not ready to pay a "master of printing" a salary equivalent to three specialists, and workers see no point in mastering three professions for a single salary.
Printing houses are trying to solve the problem through automation: installing automatic folding, creasing, and binding lines that require minimal operator involvement. However, the equipment is expensive (from 3 to 15 million rubles per line), and the payback period stretches to 5-7 years.
Technological trends: what is changing the industry
Inkjet printing enters the mass market
Inkjet digital printing is one of the few segments with steady growth. Modern industrial inkjet machines print at speeds up to 150 meters per minute, work with roll materials, and support variable data (personalization). This makes them competitive for print runs from 500 to 50,000 copies — a niche previously occupied by offset.
Main applications: direct mail, personalized catalogs, print-on-demand books, transactional printing (invoices, statements, notifications).
Hybrid solutions: offset + digital
Printing houses are increasingly using hybrid technologies: the main run is printed offset, while personalization (names, addresses, promo codes, QR codes) is added with digital printing. This allows maintaining the low cost of offset while gaining the benefits of personalization.
Environmental requirements and certification
Large clients — retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies — increasingly require FSC certification (for paper from responsible sources) and the use of eco-friendly inks (water-based or plant-based) from print shops. For small print shops this means additional costs, for medium and large ones — a competitive advantage when working with international brands.
What this means for printing houses in the regions
For printing houses in Yekaterinburg and other regional centers, the situation is mixed. On the one hand, the decline in advertising budgets for print reduces the volume of orders for flyers, brochures, and advertising materials. On the other hand, demand is growing for packaging for local manufacturers, labels for small and medium businesses, and small-run products for sellers on marketplaces.
Survival and growth strategies:
- Specialization: handling packaging, labels, souvenir products, textile printing (DTF, sublimation).
- Investments in digital equipment: digital machines with a short production cycle allow taking small orders that are not of interest to large printing houses.
- Postpress automation: reducing dependence on manual labor through the installation of automatic lines.
- Working with marketplaces: printing packaging, inserts, labels for sellers — a growing niche with constant demand.
Realistic forecast: stagnation of some segments, growth of others
Commercial printing in 2025 is not a story about 'recovery' or 'rapid growth'. It's a story about adaptation. The global market is growing slowly, the Russian printed advertising market is falling, but packaging, labels and digital printing keep the industry afloat. Printing houses that have restructured in time, invested in new equipment and found growing niches remain profitable. Those who continue to work according to old schemes lose orders and margins.
The labor shortage exacerbates the situation: without automation and increased productivity, printing houses will not be able to compete. Technological trends — inkjet printing, hybrid solutions, environmental certification — are becoming not options but necessities for working with large clients.
For regional printing houses, the key question is to find their niche and invest in equipment that allows them to work effectively in that niche. Universal printing houses offering "everything for everyone" are losing competitiveness.
Sources
- Smithers, «The Future of Global Printing to 2030» — smithers.com
- AKAR, report on the Russian advertising market 2025 — akarussia.ru
- RosUpack, packaging market analytics 2025 — rosupack.ru
- hh.ru, data on the printing industry labor market 2025
Adaptation and commentary by the editorial team of the Sedmoy Legion printing house (Yekaterinburg, 39 Sovetskaya St., operating since 2011). Material prepared based on open industry sources and analytical reports.
